More on the Brazilian Energy Mix

A quick glance at the national strategy paper made me wonder if Brazilian Government does realize it sits in the tropics, where the sun share is at his upmost. No other country possesses so much land at these latitudes and still the preference seems to be Hydroelectric and Nuclear. These are both good decisions that alas fail to address environmental concerns of waste hazard (Nuclear) and waterfauna-intrusive technology (Hydropower). Moreover, those options are perforce owned by strong Companies that pursue a merely profit policy, colliding with the economic independence needs of the populace.

It does, but appears shy to place its weight in the Renewables. In the face of a fair Feed-in-Tariff of 21 Eurocents per kWh, the total installed photovoltaic power capacity in Brazil is estimated to be between 12 and 15 MWp, of which 50% is for telecommunications systems and 50% for rural energy systems.

Last Wednesday Brazil’s Energy Research Corporation (EPE) released the National Energy Plan 2030, the government’s blueprint for energy development for the next 24 years. The EPE is a subsidiary of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), charged with energy planning.

The principal theme of the plan can be found in its subtitle: “Strategy for Expanding Supply.” The government proposes a huge increase in supply, arguing that its scenarios forecast a tripling of current consumption by 2030. EPE bases the projection on the assumption that Brazil’s population will increase 53 million by 2030 (more than the entire population of Spain, and equivalent to the current population of Brazil’s entire Northeast region!), the economy will have an annual growth rate of 4.1% and energy demand will grow at an annual average rate of 3.5%.

EPE predicts that only 10% of this new demand will be met through energy savings measures, and another 10% through self-generation (off-grid generation). In order to meet the rest of the projected demand, EPE calls for

• doubling nuclear power’s contribution by adding five 1000 MW plants — the long-debated Angra III plus two new ones in the Southeast and two in the Northeast;
• more than doubling (adding about 88,000 MW) capacity from large hydroelectric projects — adding about 3,100 MW per year until 2015, 3,400 MW per year 2016-2020, 4,300 MW/yr 2021-2025, and 3,800 MW/yr in the final five years of the Plan;
• a dramatic increase in production from small hydroelectric (pequenas centrais hidrelétricas - PCH) projects (tenfold to about 7,800 MW in 2030) and waste-to-energy (WTE) projects (from 0 MW in 2005 to 1,300 MW in 2030);
• a huge expansion in natural gas (counting on “undiscovered” national reserves and increases in imported gas (a reliable assumption given Brazil’s recent dispute with Bolivia over natural gas and uncertainties about the proposed Venezuelan Pipeline?);
• major expansion in biodiesel (up to 28 mil. l/d by 2030), diesel made with vegetable oils (H-Bio) (up to 244 mil. l/d by 2030), and “sugarcane products” (i.e., bioethanol and combusting bagasse for power generation);
• steady growth in the use of wind energy linked to the grid — from 29 MW in 2005 to about 4,700 MW in 2030 (this is a bit odd, considering that MME itself in the past has estimated Brazil’s wind power potential at 14,300 MW);
• a substantial cut in the use of wood and vegetable-based charcoal.

Strangely enough, the EPE plan does not see much of a role for solar, even though a report released earlier this year by the European Photovoltaics Industry Association (EPIA) and Greenpeace suggests that photovoltaic production in Brazil can produce as much as 2,000 MW by 2025.